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Friday, May 24th 2024, 8:51 pm
By: News On 6
TULSA, Okla. -
Highs Friday will reach the mid-80s with north winds by afternoon at 10 to 20 mph.The chanceof storms will remain near and southeast of the metro early afternoon. A few of the storms may become strong to severe. Any storms Friday night should be southeast of Tulsa, including severe weather threats. A higher threatfor severe weather arrives Saturday evening. We'll expect mostly warm and dry weather Sunday and Monday beforeadditional storm chances return next week. Active Watches and Warnings After the early morning chance for a few storms near the metro, the higher probabilityof storms will reside slightly southeast of the Tulsa metro between 3pm and 6pm with additional storms moving into far southeastern OK during the early evening hours. Any storm that develops from midday to afternoon alongthe front will be severe weather hail and wind the primary threat. Upper-level forcing is slightly removed to the east later Friday, but one or two storms may still rotate and could produce a tornado. As the front nears the region Friday morning, a few scattered showers and storms will be possible across eastern OK, but the most significant window remains from 3pm to 8pm near and southeast of Tulsa and then from 8pm to 11pm across far southeastern OK. The front will stall across far southern OK Friday night and either retrograde north early Saturday morning or could reform north of the state by midday Saturday and then travel northward into the central plains by Saturday afternoon as a powerful upper-level storm system nears the region. Data Friday morning continues to suggest that storms Saturday evening will be severe including some higher end severe weather threats. But the data also suggests that some capping issues may limit or reduce the number of storms that will be associated with this system. A powerful upper-level jet streak in the southwest flow arrives across northern OK Saturday afternoon and evening and ejects into the Missouri Valley Sunday morning. Winds from the surface to the mid-levels will be increasing speeds with height, eventually topping out near 80 to 90 knots. Additionally, wind direction will also be changing from the surface to the mid and upper levels. This combination of both speed and directional shear combined with increasing convective potential energy and instability will yielda highly conducive environment for all modes of severe weather. The question now remains as to the exact number of storms as a layer of warm air aloft (the cap) may limit some storm activity for most of the day.But by evening, discrete supercell storms will be possible. The timing for eastern OK will be mostly late Saturday, approximately from 7pm to 1am Sunday. Most of the storm threats will move into far southeastern Kansas, far eastern OK and western Arkansas 1am to 4am Sunday morning. We are not expecting any additional probabilitiesto reside Sunday behind the departing system near Tulsa, but a few scattered storms may develop Sunday afternoon across extreme eastern OK as a cold front passes the area. Early next week, the upper air pattern will change as the subtropicalridge begins its normal migrationnorthward into the southwestern states as the flow transitions from the southwest to northwest. This ridge eventually becomes established near or over Oklahoma during the summer as the westerlies begin the annual migration northward in latitude during the high sun angle season.The pattern change early next week is a hint of this change. The northwest flow is notoriousfor bringing storm systems from the northwest to the southeast into the state, usually during the late evening and overnight hours. Based on this pattern, we'll continue with some probabilities next week between Tuesday and Wednesday before the upper air pattern reverts to the southwest for later next week. Outages Across Oklahoma: Northeast Oklahoma has various power companies and electric co-operatives, many with overlapping areas of coverage. Below is a link to various outage maps. Indian Electric Cooperative (IEC) Outage Map Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives Outage Map- (Note Several Smaller Co-ops Included) The Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/03KuCPYyb4hNFyC42Yo6Bt The Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/weather-out-the-door/id1499556141?i=1000656145416 Follow the News On 6 Meteorologists on Facebook!
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